Four teams near locks for playoffs

COLUMBUS — The Ohio High School Athletic Association released the fourth weekly football computer ratings on Tuesday. The weekly ratings report is released each Tuesday for the final five weeks of the season, leading up to the final report on Oct. 26. Four area teams remain strongly in playoff position — and statistically are considered near-locks — with two games left in the regular season. The top 12 in each region will qualify for the playoffs, with the top four seeds getting a first-round bye. The OHSAA weekly report lists the top 16 schools in each region. In June, the OHSAA announced that the number of playoff qualifiers in each region would be reduced from 16 to 12. The first three rounds of the playoffs will be hosted by the higher-seeded team in the matchup. The playoffs then shift to neutral sites for the regional championships and state semifinal rounds. The seven state championship games will again be played Dec. 4-6 at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton. The 72 largest schools are in Division I, while the remaining schools are divided equally in Divisions II through VII (approximately 106 schools in each division). The OHSAA football website is at ohsaa.org/sports/football, and includes statewide schedules and playoff information, MaxPreps rankings and stat leaders, OPSMA Weekly Notebooks and Spectrum broadcast information. Below is a look at each team's playoff scenarios entering Friday: DIVISION V Edison (5-3) After a second straight loss, the Chargers will head to Vermilion (5-3) in a key SBC Bay Division game as the No. 7 seed in Region 18 this week. Drew Pasteur's fantastic50.net projects the Chargers to finish 6-4 and as the No. 10 seed in the region, which puts them on the road in the first round. According to the site, Edison is a 99 percent lock for the playoffs even with a loss to the Sailors, but are 100 percent in with a victory. Further, if Edison can close with wins over Vermilion and Huron (3-5), the Chargers also have a 99 percent chance to jump back into the top eight and play at Freedom Field on Oct. 31 in the first round. Under certain win-loss scenarios within the region, the Chargers will finish as high as No. 4 — the final first-round bye spot — or as low as 10th. DIVISION VI W. Reserve (6-2) The Roughriders moved up one spot with their 34-0 win over Ashland Crestview last week, as they are the No. 10 seed in Region 22. But what the victory did for Western was all but punch its ticket for Week 11, and gave it a little hope at a home game in the first round after a Week 6 loss to Monroeville hurt their chances. Pasteur's math has the Roughriders as 99 percent locks currently, and they move to 100 percent with an unofficial clinch if they win at Plymouth (1-7) this week. Western still has just a 35 percent chance at a home game on Oct. 31, as fantastic50.net projects them into the first round slot at No. 9 in the region. They can still finish as high as No. 6 or as low as No. 12 under certain win-loss scenarios. Primarily, Western needs either Crestview (5-3) or St. Paul (4-4) to beat Monroeville (6-2) in order to have a shot at a Firelands Conference title share. The Eagles (5-0 FC) lead the 'Riders (4-1) and Cougars (4-1) by one game. The current projected 8-seed, Patrick Henry (6-2), also has a road game at Evergreen (6-2) in Week 10, and Western needs the Patriots to also lose that game, among other scenarios. DIVISION VII Monroeville (6-2) Not only are the Eagles playing for a second straight FC title Friday night in Olivesburg, but they can also play for a week off. Monroeville is the No. 4 seed in this week's report. According to Pasteur's site, the Eagles have already clinched a third straight playoff appearance in the region. The Eagles are also 100 percent locks at home, meaning plans can be made for the renovated Marsh Field to host at least one playoff game in the coming weeks. If Monroeville beats both Crestview and St. Paul on the road, it would be outright FC champions and will be a virtual lock at securing the No. 4 seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Eagles go 1-1 over the final two weeks, however, their percentages at a bye drop from 100 percent down to 27 percent. Under certain win-loss scenarios, Monroeville can finish as high as the No. 2 seed, but no lower than the No. 6 seed — even with a pair of losses to the Cougars and Flyers. Regardless, the Eagles will be in the state playoffs for a 20th time in program history, all which have come in the previous 38 years. St. Paul (4-4) The Flyers also head to Mapleton (2-6) this Friday in a comfortable position. Pasteur's site has St. Paul's playoff chances already at 98 percent, as its officially the No. 9 seed in the region this week. But with a win over the Mounties, the Flyers move to 100 percent locks and will unofficially clinch their spot in the 12-team field. The Flyers also know they will be playing in the first round on Oct. 31. Odds are still in their favor for that game to be played at Contractors Stadium. Entering Friday, fantastic50.net has St. Paul's home game chances at 69 percent with a win this week. The site currently projects St. Paul to finish as the No. 7 seed. If the Flyers beat Mapleton and Monroeville, they jump to 99 percent near-locks to be at home in the first round. If they go 1-1 over the two games, the Flyers still have 61 percent chances to stay among the top eight spots. Under certain win-loss scenarios, the Flyers can finish as high as No.6 and as low as No. 12, or just outside the field, if they were to lose both games. But with a win, St. Paul will all but be assured playoff appearance No. 27 — all in the past 31 seasons. St. Paul has won 47 playoff games, which is tied with Youngstown Ursuline for the 10th most in the state since 2000. DIVISION III Norwalk (2-6) The Truckers appeared as the 16th and final team listed in Region 10 this week. Norwalk made the playoffs as the No. 15 seed last year when the field was 16 teams. If the Truckers went 1-1 in their final two games this season, they would have likely qualified under that previous format. However, even with a pair of wins over Sandusky (1-7) and at Clyde (3-5), the Truckers would need an exceptional amount of chaos around them to finish 12th. Pasteur's site gives Norwalk a 33 percent chance at 4-6, and just a 7 percent chance at 3-7. Among the help it would likely need includes Columbian to lose to both Clyde and Perkins; and Ontario to lose to Marengo Highland (3-5) or River Valley (3-5). That is as a result of the Truckers losing to both the Tornadoes and Warriors. Also, Norwalk will need Vermilion to beat both Edison and Bellevue (5-3) for a boost in its secondary points. But it all starts for the Truckers at home this Friday against the Blue Streaks.