Ohio State has playoff path after loss — but needs a ton of help

COLUMBUS — Ohio State football experienced life after losing The Game last season as particular losses elsewhere lined up to push the Buckeyes into the playoff. Technically, that could still happen this season after Saturday's 30-24 loss at Michigan. However, it would require even more help than in 2022. Shortly after the loss, Ohio State coach Ryan Day said he had focused so intensely on The Game that he had not yet processed the possibility of a second life. "I think we have a very good team," Day said when asked if he believed the Buckeyes are a playoff team. "We came up short today. It's devastating. "I believe in our players. I think we have a veteran team. I think we have a team that's solid in all three phases. I'd have to kind of see what else is out there." What's out there are a lot of other teams in playoff position. A year ago, OSU simply needed Utah to beat USC in the Pac-12 championship game after Clemson also stumbled in its regular-season finale. This year, many more Power 5 teams made it to conference championship weekend without acquiring a second loss. The SEC champion will take a playoff spot. If Alabama upsets Georgia, the SEC likely sends two teams to the playoff. The Pac-12 champion will almost certainly take one playoff spot, even if one-loss Oregon beats undefeated Washington. Michigan opened as more than a three-touchdown favorite over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. Hard to imagine what offensive epiphany by the Hawkeyes would give them any chance to spring the upset. Mark the Wolverines down for one playoff spot. Florida State's spot seemed shaky after Jordan Travis' season-ending ankle injury in Week 12. The undefeated Seminoles won again Saturday, though. If they beat Louisville in the ACC championship game, they're in, regardless of their compromised roster. Hard to imagine the CFP selection committee setting that precedent. These outcomes — and it might take all of them — would give Ohio State a clear shot at the fourth and final playoff spot. • Georgia beats Alabama. The committee probably would not drop the two-time defending champion Bulldogs, currently No. 1 in the rankings, all the way out of the top four for mrerely losing to another playoff team. For OSU to sneak in, the SEC likely must be a one-bid league. • Louisville upsets Florida State in the ACC championship game. The committee dropped FSU to No. 5 last week. If someone gives them a reason to hold the Travis-less Seminoles out of the top four, they'll take it. • Oklahoma State upsets Texas in the Big 12 championship game. Texas as a one-loss conference champion certainly gets in over non-champ Ohio State. (Many Buckeye fans will root for this regardless, because the possibility of Quinn Ewers and Michigan playing for the national championship might be too much to bear.) • Washington beats Oregon in the Pac-2 championship. This eliminates the chance of the selection committee giving a possible one-loss Huskies team the benefit of the doubt for losing an "extra" game to a team it has already beaten, when OSU's failure to reach its conference championship game meant it was not exposed to another loss. • If you think Iowa upsetting Michigan belongs on the list, you're wrong. That would create a TCU scenario, and the committee still took the Horned Frogs as the No. 3 seed last year. Any one of those first three events not happening all but assures the selection committee will face too many undefeated or one-loss conference champions to consider over Ohio State. It will not matter that the Buckeyes would be favored on a neutral field over some of those teams assured to get in. An Orange Bowl matchup with either FSU or Louisville becomes the most likely destination. Ohio State remains one of the few programs for whom a New Year's Six bowl seems like a consolation prize. Those consequences contributed to the urgent stakes of The Game. "Games like this come down to one or two plays," OSU quarterback Kyle McCord said. "You prepare all offseason, prepare all year long, and your season really comes down to a handful of plays, whether you make them or you don't. That just goes to show the margin of error, especially in games like this, are so slim." That "what might have been" feeling will be a familiar one for OSU fans. It repeatedly infiltrated their experience in the four-team playoff era.