How Josh Mandel could make a political comeback: analysis

CLEVELAND — The May 3 Republican Senate primary left a lingering question over a political mainstay in Ohio for the past decade: what's next for Josh Mandel? Once viewed as a rising star in the party, the former treasurer has now unsuccessfully run for Senate three times, losing twice and dropping out once. While, historically speaking, this casts a pall over candidates, there is still a view by many that he could make a comeback, though only with some tinkering in his strategy. Mandel first ran for the Senate in 2012, losing to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. He was initially the Republican favorite in 2018 before abruptly ending his campaign, citing the need to take care of an undisclosed illness with his wife as the reason. When he entered the fray for retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman's seat in 2021, he immediately jumped to the top of the pack, with big money backing and a higher name ID than any of the other candidates. Polling consistently showed him leading until the final stretch of the election, losing to the author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance – himself a now-rising star in Republican politics. Mandel is no longer the up-and-comer who can shake things up. Voters are familiar with him and have twice rejected him for higher office. Historically, multiple high-profile losses can be a death knell for candidates. Frequent runs can make voters think they are "perennial candidates" rather than serious choices. That hasn't stopped others from trying, though, which may be in Mandel's future. "The odds are very high that he will run again for something," said Mark Weaver, a Republican consultant. "This is what he does. Whether he's successful will depend on whether he's learned from these mistakes." At 44 years old, Mandel is still very young by American political standards, but he's been in the public eye for more than a decade, and not always for the right reasons. Bad bloodHe's also made a name for himself as an instigator within Republican politics and as a bomb-thrower throughout the state. He rarely operates amongst the confines of the Ohio Republican Party. Take, for instance, this Senate race. Mandel started it off by loudly and repeatedly chastising Republican Gov. Mike DeWine for coronavirus measures. That may have worked to a degree to lure some voters disaffected by DeWine, but practically speaking, it doesn't win you any friends with one of the most entrenched GOP politicians in the state. Even his time in the treasurer's office rubbed Republicans the wrong way. The legislature slashed Mandel's budget for advertising after he produced a commercial with then- Ohio State University football coach Urban Meyer that many saw as using state money to self-promote his upcoming Senate bid. That was an extraordinary move by Republicans to punish one of their own. During numerous scandals over the past 10 years, the GOP has almost always taken care of its own. Indicted former House Speaker Larry Householder kept his seat for nearly a year after federal authorities arrested him in connection with a $61 million bribery scheme in conjunction with FirstEnergy. Mandel has operated that way for years. During GOP Gov. John Kasich's presidential run, Mandel endorsed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio while much of the rest of the Republican Party in the state rallied behind the governor. In hindsight, that might not seem too strange, but Kasich was still popular with Republicans in a pre-President Donald Trump world. Still, despite heavily criticizing Kasich in the past, Mandel was happy to campaign with him during his ascent. Further complicating the dynamics around Mandel is his inability to rid the stink amongst some Republicans of his 2012 loss to Brown, the only Democrat who holds a partisan elected office statewide. Mandel consistently finds himself at a gap in authenticity with Republicans, with many characterizing him as willing to say whatever he thinks he needs to get elected. His runs were largely defined by stunts and sloganeering, with little focus on policy, and he has been described as a "political chameleon" and "opportunist." His primary opponents described him as effusive when it came to substance, fixated on buzz words about "wokeness" and the like without any offerings on why he was different from a generic Trump Republican. In the latest election, plenty of Trump's supporters in the state thought Mandel's relentless effort to tie himself to the former president felt staged. Mandel had almost no connection to Trump and wasn't heavily involved in either of the former president's campaigns in Ohio. But he painted himself as on the frontlines of that election. Matt Cox, an Ohio lobbyist and a Republican, said this is a consistent shortcoming of Mandel's every time he runs. However, Cox added he could envision Mandel running again. "Each time he ran, he became a worse version of what he was before in terms of just saying whatever it is he thought people wanted him to say to get elected," Cox said. "People get tired of that." Despite his perceived practical shortcomings, even his detractors said Mandel might be able to turn around his recent electoral malaise. Ralph King, a Republican activist who described himself as "not a Mandel guy," said Mandel elicited some sympathy in his loss last week. Trump came in late and endorsed Vance, whom many grassroots Republican activists view with suspicion and feel that without that interference, Mandel would have won the primary. "I have had some people who are Josh supporters that are p----d at Trump, and they believe he would've beaten (Mike) Gibbons had Trump not pulled this crap with J.D. Vance and betrayed the Trump supporters and screwed Mandel supporters over," King said. To many, Mandel's loss is not necessarily his own doing, King said. "I know if Josh would run again, they would be right there in his camp," he said. "I think he's got one left." The comeback blueprintThere are some examples of candidates who have lost statewide and managed to salvage their political careers. John Glenn lost the Democratic primaries in 1964 and 1970 before rebounding in 1974, starting a more than two-decade career in the U.S. Senate. Likewise, Democrat Howard Metzenbaum lost the general election for Senate in 1970 and the primary in 1974. Nevertheless, he emerged victorious in 1976, holding the seat for three terms. Even Republican Gov. Mike DeWine has known his fair share of political defeat, losing to Glenn in the 1992 Senate race before bouncing back and winning in 1994. When Democrat Sherrod Brown successfully ousted him in 2006, many theorized DeWine's political career was essentially over. DeWine returned to become Ohio's attorney general in the 2010 election, serving two terms before his successful gubernatorial campaign in 2018. How Mandel could go about this is a matter of debate, though he would need to reinvent himself, as other politicians have done, in the process, Cox said. "It'll be hard for him to reinvent himself in two years," Cox said. "Or honestly, essentially six months, because that race in 2024 is going to start the day after this election." Weaver agreed that a reinvention is necessary for any future Mandel might have. Politicians go through it all the time, such as the example of DeWine following his 2006 loss in the Senate race. And it can happen very quickly depending on the electoral environment. "We don't know what will be on the mind of Republican voters in two years," he said. "It's just too far out. But he would have to convince some sense of understanding where he went wrong in the past and self-correcting." In DeWine, there is a roadmap to a comeback: run for a lower-profile office and gain support before ultimately making a bid for higher office. In a state that has voted heavily Republican over the past decade statewide, Mandel would likely be a heavy favorite for a statewide office such as auditor or secretary of state. If he wants to go the federal route, there are multiple congressional districts gerrymandered to favor Republicans. "Sometimes a successful political comeback requires doing the hard, lower-profile work of another office," Weaver said. ©2022 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit cleveland.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.