Oscars 2021: Experts explain why award show ratings have plunged during COVID, and why interest in Academy Awards may dip this year

Viewers aren't tuning into awards shows like they used to — and that's bad news for Sunday's Oscars. Although declining ratings for ceremonies isn't a new trend, industry experts are blaming historically low viewership on how the COVID-19 epidemic has changed the way these shows are presented. "It is kind of mystifying why we see it, and the only real (new) variable is that these award shows look differently than they did before because of COVID," Robert Thompson, the founding director of Syracuse University's Bleier Center for Television & Popular Culture, told the Daily News. "I suppose that's the closest we get to an answer," he said. "Somehow, the solutions that these awards productions have come up with are not appealing to people." Last month's Grammys viewership plunged by 53% compared to 2020 en route to the annual event's lowest-rated ceremony ever. The Golden Globes in February also set a record low, dropping by 60% from last year. The Screen Actors Guild Awards, meanwhile, didn't even draw a million viewers, despite airing on two networks. Every award show this year has adopted some form of physical distancing in response to the pandemic, with the SAG Awards being pre-taped, shortened and virtual, the Golden Globes keeping nominees at home, and the Grammys only inviting performers and nominees. But format changes are only the latest issue that Oscars producers have to contend with, according to Thompson. In today's era of fragmented TV, award shows must compete for viewership against many more programs than they did in the past, and the ceremonies might feel outdated to some viewers. "Most of them still pretty much look like they did back in the 1970s," Thompson added. "You name nominees, and then people have to go up there, or this time get connected on Zoom or whatever it is they're using, make their speeches and you have to go on. It's a traffic-direction kind of thing. They are kind of stodgy in terms of modern pacing and structure." Another way that the pandemic has impacted award season is by keeping people at home — meaning there's no water-cooler buzz for films that have everyone talking, like the 2019 best picture nominee "Black Panther" did. "We were all at home more," Dana Polan of New York University Tisch's Department of Cinema Studies told The News. "We're consuming more moving-image culture, but I think we're not all consuming the same things. Some people are watching YouTube. Some people are watching TV. I don't think there is kind of a shared interest in one film over another." There also may be a level of predictability for the winners going into this year's Oscars, with several nominees considered heavy favorites after repeatedly winning at previous award shows. "I think it could be (a factor)," Polan said. "It's sort of like, 'Why do I need to devote two hours to that when I know what's going to happen?' In that same amount of time, I could be doing something else at home." In a year that's seen more than 3 million COVID-related deaths worldwide, repeated mass shootings in the United States, a tumultuous presidential election and the recent trial for Derek Chauvin, the fired Minneapolis cop found guilty in the death of George Floyd, some viewers may look at glitzy award shows as being trivial or tone deaf. "There certainly are a lot of other things to get people's attention," Thompson said. "But every bit as much as you could say, 'Are people not going to the award shows because there's all this other serious stuff going on, and these award shows seem just too naively oblivious to that,' you could also make just as strong an argument to say with all this stuff that's going on, you would think there might be a real appetite for the naive escapism that award shows offer." Oscars producers want Sunday's three-hour show, which begins at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, to feel as normal as possible. Nominees and presenters will get dressed up and attend the ceremony, which is split into two locations in Los Angeles: the traditional Dolby Theatre, and Union Station. The host-less broadcast will aim to feel like a movie, with the presenters being "essentially the storytellers for each chapter," producer Steven Soderbergh told The Associated Press. "My big thing has always been: It's not intimate. It doesn't feel personal," Soderbergh said. "We're in a COVID world. It has to be that way. Nominees, guests, presenters. That's it. Those are the only people in the room." The Oscars recorded its lowest-ever viewership in 2020, attracting just 23.6 million viewers. That was down by 20% compared to 29.6 million viewers in 2019. Judging by this year's other ceremonies, the Oscars' ratings slide will continue, Thompson said. "Every indication is pointing to the fact that (for a) really good award show, the Grammys, ratings plummeted," Thompson said. "Shows that just put the whole thing in an hour, pretaped it, ratings plummeted. I guess the rational money would be on the fact that the Oscars are probably going to follow suit." ——— ©2021 New York Daily News. Visit at nydailynews.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.