Playoff picture becoming clear for four teams

COLUMBUS — The Ohio High School Athletic Association released the third weekly official football computer ratings on Oct. 6. The weekly ratings report will be released each Tuesday for the remainder of the season, leading up to the final report on Oct. 25. The top 12 in each region will qualify for the playoffs, with the top four seeds getting a first-round bye. The 72 largest schools are in Division I, along with several schools that opted up to Div. I for the 2026 season. Divisions II through VII are divided equally (approximately 106 schools in each division). In Div. VI Region 22, unbeaten and state-ranked Western Reserve, held serve at No. 4, the final first-round bye position, for a third straight week. The Roughriders (7-0, 4-0) are coming off a 39-8 win over South Central in a Firelands Conference game on Oct. 2 and host Crestview (1-6, 0-3) this Friday. According to Drew Pasteur's fantastic50.net, because of the depth of the region, the 'Riders will likely need to finish 10-0 to stay among the top four positions, and there is the possibility even that won't be enough. The current and projected fifth seed, Columbus Grove (6-1), takes on Div. V Bluffton (6-1) in Week 10, and a win by the Bulldogs could vault them past the 'Riders, no matter what Western does. Regardless, Western is well on its way to an eighth straight playoff appearance and likely a home game in the loaded region. Elsewhere, in Div. V Region 18, both Willard (3-4) and Edison (2-5) are just outside the top 16 listed teams by the OHSAA at 17th and 18th, respectively. In Div. VII Region 25, more familiar names to area schools, sits at the top with Cuyahoga Heights (6-1), McDonald (7-0), and Mogadore (5-2). Monroeville followed up a tough 38-36 loss to Western on Sept. 25 with a 42-14 win at Mapleton on Oct. 2. That moved the Eagles up two spots from 13th to 11th this week. Fantastic50.net gives the Eagles a 98 percent chance to be among the top 12. Pasteur's site projects them at eighth with a 5-4 record, assuming the Eagles win their remaining three games. That would give them the final home playoff position in the first round on Oct. 30. The Eagles are idle this Friday and head to before hosting St. Paul (3-3, 2-1). The biggest game among teams around the top 12 cutoff in the region this week will take place in Greenwich when South Central (3-4, 2-2) hosts the Flyers. The Trojans are 13th this week and the Flyers are right behind in 14th by just .0158 of a point. With No. 12 Dalton (2-5) facing Chippewa (5-2) this week, it's realistic for the St. Paul-South Central winner to enter Week 9 among the top 12 teams. According to Pasteur's model, South Central needs at least two wins to be on the playoff bubble. The Trojans have 94 percent odds to qualify with six wins, but it goes down to 55 percent with five wins. South Central closes the season with home games against New London (1-6) and Black River (1-6). Pasteur's projections still view the Flyers favorably after they got back to .500 last week. Pasteur's models project St. Paul to finish 5-4 and as the No. 11 seed in the 12-team field. The Flyers likely cannot finish below 5-4 to make the playoffs, however. Their current playoff chances sit at 90 percent. St. Paul hosts Mapleton before making the trek to Monroeville to finish the regular season. If the Flyers win out, Pasteur's model gives them favorable odds (96 percent) to be at home in the first round as well. WR ranked 15th in state poll The Roughriders are still receiving votes in the fourth weekly Associated Press state poll, released on Oct. 6. Western is 15th in Division VI, which is one spot up from last week. The 'Riders are among seven of the top 10 teams from Region 22 that appear in the poll, including the top two teams. Defending state champion Liberty Center (7-0) is No. 1, and Lima Central Catholic (7-0) is No. 2. Columbus Grove (6-1), which lost 13-7 to LCC in week 2, is ranked sixth, followed by Woodmore (6-0) in 10th, Patrick Henry (5-2) in 23rd, and Delta (5-2) in 24th. Also of note to the area, four of Norwalk's opponents are ranked. Ontario (7-0) is No. 8 in Div. III, while Northern Ohio Conference Lake foe Perkins (7-0) is No. 2 in Div. IV. The Truckers host the Pirates this Friday. NOC Bay teams Bellevue (5-2) and Vermilion (6-1) are ranked 10th and 14th, respectively, in divisions IV and V. Longtime rival Shelby (7-0), who the Truckers scrimmaged on Aug. 14, is No. 4 in Div. IV. Also of note to the area, Bluffton (6-1) is No. 7 in Div. V, while Port Clinton (6-1) is 15th and Margaretta (6-1) is 17th. Edison fell to Bluffton in Week 2 and hosts the Redskins, who also beat St. Paul in Week 1, this Friday. Margaretta's lone loss was a 26-7 defeat at Western in Week 2. In Div. VII, Danville (7-0), is No. 4, which included a win at Monroeville in Week 3. Mohawk (6-1) is No. 10 after it's win at Willard last week, and the Warriors also scrimmaged both the Eagles and Flyers in August. Poll leaders across the seven divisions remain unchanged this week. They included Cincinnati Princeton (Div. I), Columbus Watterson (Div. II), Bellbrook (Div. III), Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (Div. IV), Perry (Div. V), Liberty Center (Div. VI), and Maria Stein Marion Local (Div. VII).